Why I believe Oil will shoot like a monsterBy Hansungpil

Peak Oil is very near, happens for the first time since oil discovery.

I promised to post why I believe Oil will shoot like a monster, possibly 10000% in a year within 5 years, that's by 2016.

Look at this oil reserve table published from Opec. The table is about in the middle of the page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserve

As you see, the biggest oil consuming country, USA claims they have 8 years of oil reserve to go since 2010. So from middle of 2011, USA has only 6-7 years of oil under its ground. But that's not the truth. When you look at other middle Asia's oil reserve, it's far beyond what USA has. Why? Because Opec is lying. Each country in middle Asia wants to claim the oil reserve in their country is far beyond others. I think the data from USA is somewhat close to honest, but I doubt also. Let's say the oil reserve of USA is 30% down from its estimate. That's 4-5years from mid 2011, 2015-2016.

What will happen if oil goes empty? Of course, the production will decrease. But this time, very fast. Because oil pumping industry has built lots of well pumping facility and the oil will go dry out very fast. So oil production will drop like a falling knife. Before this sharp oil production, there is a production top area, 'Peak Oil'. Analysts estimate it's around 2020, which I believe, that's when Opec said USA's oil reserve.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_peak

I don't believe we have that much time. I estimate 2015-2016, we'll possibly see Oil Peak which we have never seen in our history since Oil was discovered.

Why does the world keep their mouth quiet for this crisis? Because we don't have any alternative energy source to replace oil. And guess what will happen if oil will be out of source within 10 years. Why are we buying cars run by oil? Nobody buys cars, then, auto makers go bankrupt, following huge layoffs, mortgage crisis will follow, another big depression. So, until we reach, everyone should be quiet.

Now, what we can do? Buy oil stocks and alternative energy stocks and keep it like treasury, don't sell until everyone screams and half of cars on the street go dead. Then, you'll find you're sitting at black gold.

However, there's a few problems.

1. Oil drilling company is accumulated pretty debts from its long term business with loss. This may make the oil drilling company's stocks to go down until major talks about Peak Oil spreads.

2. When economy stalls or goes down, analysts believe oil demands will decrease, but this is not true. Oil will be treated more like or equivalent to previous metals. You laugh? I do for now, too. lol.
Anyway, market movers will take advantage of stock index going down to bring down oil price to accumulate.

3. With the same idea of 2, market movers may use hype from alternative energy to press oil down.

There are a few more you can think of, why oil can be pressed down more from here. But that's all about temporary playout by market movers. Things to go up in value should go up when it's released, but very hard once it is.

right now, to my knowledge, my only question is timing which is very near, Where is handsome entry? How many blocks of average-down funds should I divide to buy up oil stock?

author hansungpil